The challenges behind electric vehicle growth

Electric vehicles (EVs) have gained significant traction worldwide and are integral to numerous countries' strategies for achieving effective, eco-friendly, and low-carbon transportation. However, many experts are critical of their complete disclosure of environmental sustainability.

In 2022, global sales of electric vehicles (EVs) surpassed 10.1 million, as reported by the International Energy Agency (IEA). Forecasts indicate a projected 35% increase in EVs sales in 2023, reaching 14 million.

From 2011 to 2021, the growth trajectory of EVs has been remarkable, with sales increasing from 120,000 to 6.6 million. Tesla (TSLA), the prominent electric car manufacturer delivered 1.31 million vehicles in 2022.

Figure 1: Top 14 countries with a share of new car sales that were electric in 2022 (Source)

Figure 1 demonstrates the top 14 countries with their share of new car sales that were electric in 2022. In Norway, 88% of the sold cars were electric. Being the largest EVs market in Europe, Norway gets a majority of its energy from hydropower. In the second position comes Iceland with 70%, followed by Sweden with 54%.

Significance of electric vehicles

While EVs do not emit greenhouse gases from their exhaust pipes, emissions are generated during the manufacturing process of the vehicles, batteries, and charging stations. One significant source of pollutants is the production of large lithium-ion batteries used in EVs.

The extraction and refinement of raw materials such as lithium, nickel, and cobalt, essential components of current EVs batteries involve mining and energy-intensive processes often reliant on fossil fuels.

For example, the construction of an 80 kWh lithium-ion battery used in a Tesla Model 3, can produce between 2.5 and 16 metric tons of CO2.

Figure 2: Emissions from electric vehicles, starting from raw material extraction to the vehicles manufacture (Source)

Figure 2 demonstrates the typical upstream EVs emissions producing large lithium-ion batteries starting from raw material extraction to vehicle manufacture. Battery manufacturing possess 40-60% of the emissions. The next major emissions come from steel and aluminium with 15-20% and 10-20%, respectively.

For the internal-combustion-engine (ICEs) vehicles as shown in Figure 3, batteries' emissions are eliminated. Steel is the major contributor, accounting for 25-35% of the emissions, followed by aluminium in the range of 20-30%. Plastics and rubber account for 15-20%.

Figure 3: Emissions from internal-combustion engines, starting from raw material extraction to the vehicles manufacture (Source)

The study of the environmental impacts of EVs throughout their life cycle, compared to those of internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) was carried out in a recent study.

Considering the environmental effects of battery production, use, secondary utilization, recycling, and re-manufacturing, the study revealed that the production phase of EVs has a higher environmental impact than that of ICEVs due to battery manufacturing.

Environmental challenges of electric vehicles

Achieving substantial decarbonization will require ongoing efforts to decarbonize the transport sector, including a shift towards low-emission modes of transportation.

The process of extracting and manufacturing EVs batteries has detrimental environmental consequences, including pollution, habitat destruction, and carbon emissions.

Argentina possesses a significant portion, approximately 21% of the world's lithium reserves. Further plans to open 13 additional mines in the country raise concerns about further damage to an ecosystem and exploitation of its natural resources.

However, a majority of batteries are manufactured in Asia, predominantly in China, which commands over 70% of the market share but also exhibits the most emission-intensive production practices.

Establishing EVs charging infrastructure poses additional challenges that entail the consumption of energy, resources, and land for the construction of charging stations and associated facilities.

The growing demand for lithium in EVs batteries, particularly with the advancement of larger vehicle battery capacities, further exacerbates these challenges. It is worth noting that lithium mining is notorious for its substantial water requirements.

Does recycling help?

Promoting the use of renewable energy sources to power EVs recharging is vital for sustainable electric mobility.

Additionally, recognizing the significance of the second life of lithium-ion batteries plays a crucial role in fostering a sustainable business model and embracing the principles of the circular economy.

In an ideal scenario, one study suggests that recycling end-of-life EVs batteries could potentially supply 60% of global cobalt, 53% of lithium, 57% of manganese, and 53% of nickel demand by 2040.

Figure 4: The expected global supply of EVs batteries for recycling (Source)

Figure 4 suggests the expected share of production scraps and end-of-life scraps for battery recycling until 2040.

Currently, most of the battery material suitable for recycling still comes from consumer electronics cells, such as those in laptops and other household items, and cell manufacturing scrap generated from faulty batteries that don’t pass quality control.

Production scrap is expected to remain the main source of materials for recycling until 2025 with 53%, after which end-of-life recycling is expected to overtake. By 2040, a majority of the share with 94% is expected to be of end-of-life scraps, leaving the production scraps with 6%.

The emission levels associated with EVs battery production are influenced by multiple factors, such as design decisions, vehicle types, range capabilities, freight demands, production methods, and sourcing locations.

Looking at Figure 4, there is optimism that significant reductions in carbon emissions from EVs battery production can be achieved within the next five to ten years through recycling and the use of renewable energies.

Recycling serves as a long-term solution to mitigate the potential future scarcity of raw battery materials. With numerous new battery factories emerging worldwide, substantial volumes of production scrap will become available.

Currently, recycled battery materials typically possess a carbon footprint approximately four times smaller than that raw materials obtained from primary sources. This means increasing the proportion of recycled materials in production represents a crucial stride toward decarbonization.

Figure 5: By using the recycled raw materials, the total CO2 emissions could be brought down by more than 28% (Source)

In Figure 5, Mckinsey & Company compared total CO2 emissions from a nickel-based lithium-ion battery cell production with virgin materials vs recycled raw materials. 

Using, recycled, the emissions can be brought down by 28%. The transportation of battery cells or their components accounts for a relatively small fraction, approximately 5%, of the total greenhouse gas emissions associated with batteries. 

To enhance the recycling of batteries throughout the value chain, various stakeholders should focus on expanding battery collection and recycling efforts. This includes scaling up logistics, testing, disassembly, and processing, as well as implementing digital track and trace systems.

It is also essential to promote sustainable manufacturing techniques such as the use of renewable energy in manufacturing facilities and the implementation of efficient production methods.

Digital Product Passports

Since 2020, the European Union (EU) has been actively pursuing measures to enhance transparency, traceability, and accountability throughout the entire battery life cycle. These efforts involve accessing battery management systems, implementing digital product passports, requiring carbon footprint declarations, and setting maximum thresholds. 

The EU has established specific recycling rates for lithium, cobalt, and nickel. Moreover, it has set targets for the utilization of recycled materials in new batteries to stimulate demand and promote sustainability. 

The importance of digital product passports is that, it can provide better data, improve supply chain transparency, and facilitate collaboration among value-chain participants. 

These passports could potentially enable the efficient implementation of circular economy strategies that would accompany a vehicle or component throughout its life cycle, supporting investments in efficient waste and resource management systems.

Summary

• Global sales of EVs exceeded 10.1 million in 2022 and are projected to increase by 35% in 2023

• Tesla led the market by delivering 1.31 million EVs in 2022

• Emissions are generated during the extraction and manufacturing of batteries, vehicles, and charging infrastructure

• Recycling EVs batteries is crucial for mitigating the future scarcity of raw battery materials and reducing emissions

• The promotion of sustainable manufacturing techniques and the use of renewable energy in production facilities are crucial for reducing the environmental impact

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